Is There A Thaw Happening?

I dunno - but there may be some life left in 2025 after all.

Author

Tim Kilroy
30 May • Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes

This Week's Missive!

There Haven’t Been Too Many In The Agency World Who Are Reforecasting UP in the Last Two Years

But there are some who have been hitting it hard and growing well, but for most of 2025, I’d only been seeing FREEZES (prospects dragging their feet, or clients cutting budgets, or whatever). In fact, in my own business, there has been much slower decision making, and lots of “do you work on performance” questions… (quick note, the answer is never 100% performance, and I only do any sort of performance when 1. I know, like & trust you and 2. That’s it).

But just this week, I’ve seen some encouraging signs. One of my clients generally adds 7-8 new clients a month. Here is his 2025:

January: 7 New Clients
February: 6 New Clients
March: 3 New Clients
April: 7 New Clients
May: 14 New Clients

Another client had a $100K project show up from a past client - no bid, no competition, just a “Does this work for you?” Another client has gone from bone-dry pipeline to a 4 brand website redesign/migration pitch. In my business, I’ve seen two deals that have been stalled for months suddenly cross the finish line.

Carl Smith from Bureau of Digital posted about this on LinkedIn earlier in the week:

Biz dev thaw: How to find new business and re-engage clients | Carl Smith posted on the topic | LinkedIn

I’ve been talking a lot about the biz dev “summer thaw” I’m seeing in The Bureau Community, and today, somebody called me out. Where do I find the new biz you’re talking about? I kind of overlooked sharing that part. Let’s fix that! Right now, agencies are seeing movement, but it’s not all coming from new leads. A lot of it is bubbling up with current clients who are starting to re-engage. Projects that stalled earlier in the year are coming back to life. Discovery conversations are happening again. Clients are saying yes to small strategy sprints or roadmap items they’ve been sitting on since last fall. On the new biz front, the work is there, but the first ask needs to be lighter. Teams getting traction are leading with lower-risk offers like digital audits, accessibility reviews, and competitive analysis. These small steps help prospects move forward without needing sign-offs from a higher-up. And they open the door. A smart reframe also helps. One agency stopped pitching “website redesigns” and started talking about digital change management. Same needs, new lens. And now they’re moving into more strategic conversations earlier in the sales cycle. Paid discovery is working too, especially when there’s something tangible involved. Even a quick AI-generated prototype can spark momentum. It provides client champions with something to pass around internally. Something that helps them advocate for progress now. And let’s not ignore how well in-person is performing right now. Face-to-face is beating digital at every stage of the funnel. Not because the leads are better, but because trust forms faster. So go to local meetups and conferences. Invite a former client out for coffee. It's working! Promethean Research's Digital Agency Pulse Check supports all of this. Pipelines today are slightly weaker than they were at the start of the year, but agency leaders are more optimistic about the rest of the year. Many view the first half of 2025 as the low point, and they’re already engaged in active discovery work that hasn’t yet been added to the pipeline. They also found that strategy services are in high demand, especially digital and marketing strategies. Content, social, and email? Not so much. Those have become budget casualties, seen as too commoditized in a cautious economy. Web dev is split; it’s strong for agencies serving robust sectors like private healthcare and professional services, but it struggles for those tied to nonprofits or e-commerce. If you’re not seeing the thaw yet, look again. Reconnect with current clients. Show up in person. Reposition your capabilities as leadership, not execution. Start small. Land and expand. And please be careful out there. LinkedIn is full of opportunists selling sure-fire leads and magic funnels if you just type “I’m gullible” in the comments. Most of them have never run an agency or been involved in biz dev. You don’t need shortcuts. You need focus, clarity, flexibility, and consistent value. | 21 comments on LinkedIn

www.linkedin.com/posts/carl-w-smith_ive-been-talking-a-lot-about-the-biz-dev-activity-7333480764786827265-1dQf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAAFC0UB9roFFCxF_1rL4oXf-jz02kBrNUU

So I Started Doing Some Research

  1. Upwork saw an uptick in enterprise requests in their latest earnings. (Let’s call that a bleeding edge indicator?)

  2. Via Gartner, marketing spend is staying steady at 7.7% of revenues (it dropped in 2024)

  3. Adweek says that overall ad spending will drop $20B YoY 2024-2025, that is because of election cycles and Olympics spending going away for the next 3 years. However, digital adspend will from still grow YoY.

  4. The Business Research Company is showing expected growth in the 2nd half of 2025.

So the research DOESN’T really show us anything notable in the coming 6 months - but we’ve got vibes on our side, people.

What Are You Seeing?

Is There A Biz Dev Thaw Happening?

Yes? No? I dunno?

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